The mobile robot sector, which had previously been characterized by notable expansion and investor enthusiasm, is adjusting to a new era defined by caution and reduced forecasts. New economic realities, trade policies, and evolving market methodologies have left stakeholders recalibrating both expectations and strategies. Many in the robotics industry are now focusing on resilience and flexibility as uncertainty prevails. Several companies in logistics and manufacturing are closely monitoring these trends, looking for viable paths forward, and assessing which product types may weather current obstacles best.
Past analyses of the mobile robot market often predicted sustained double-digit growth, with heavy emphasis on rapid expansion across regions and verticals. Earlier forecasts did not reside in the context of the pronounced economic and geopolitical disruptions now shaping investment and strategy. The most recent data shows a marked shift from these previous, more optimistic projections, as attention turns toward protectionism and vendor-specific considerations. Notably, the sustained high Growth Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and trade disruptions represent new headwinds compared to earlier assessments from prior years.
What Factors Led to a Sharper Forecast Reduction?
Interact Analysis revised its mobile robot market outlook in May 2025, reducing its 2025 forecast by $800 million and trimming the sector’s expected compound annual growth rate from 26% to 21%. The reduction applies across major markets, including the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific, and takes into account revised vendor shipment data and a recalibrated serviceable available market. By 2030, projected revenue now stands at $15.6 billion, a significant downward adjustment from previous estimates. Geopolitical influences, particularly global tariffs imposed under President Trump’s administration, have upended supply chains, increased costs for both domestic and international vendors, and fueled a wait-and-see approach toward automation investments.
How Are Tariffs and Construction Trends Impacting Deployment?
Tariffs have strained decision-making and delayed capital investments, with many companies wary of making large-scale commitments without clarity on long-term costs. Interact Analysis’ Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index recorded its highest value in January 2025, underlining the scale of current anxieties among both vendors and end users. Concurrently, modest signs of improvement in warehouse construction—seen mainly in the U.S. and Japan—have not offset the prevailing negative global growth rates, which remain at -2% year over year out to 2030. Rising construction costs, industrial overcapacity, and policy vagaries continue to hinder new deployments and expansion of automation.
What Do the Latest Product-Specific Insights Reveal?
Analysis of specific mobile robot segments highlights diverse trajectories. Automated guided vehicles (AGVs) now face weaker shipment growth due to economic drag and sluggish automotive demand. Automated mobile robots (AMRs), particularly larger form factors, are subject to 15–20% shipment cuts. The person-to-goods (P2G) category, dominated by Locus Robotics after the integration of 6 River Systems into Ocado Intelligent Automation, is expected to maintain 30% annual revenue growth to 2030. However, shelf-to-person and tote-to-person segments are constrained by tariffs, competitive Chinese vendors, and a reevaluation of addressable markets, which has adjusted deployment expectations, especially where these solutions compete with fixed automation in mid-throughput warehouses.
“Companies are holding back on large-scale automation investments, wary of shifting trade policies and uncertain over both their own costs and the fiscal health of customers and vendors.”
Strategic resilience and adaptability have come to the forefront for all players, including vendors, integrators, and investors. The original fundamentals that fueled automation interest remain intact, yet navigation now requires careful attention to international trade, cost structures, and evolving customer needs. The need for flexible, scalable solutions endures, though expectations for full automation remain decades away.
An objective examination suggests stakeholders should scrutinize regional, segment-specific, and supply chain trends before making investment or operational commitments. Those depending on significant price drops to outcompete manual labor in developing regions may need to adjust expectations. For businesses exploring integration of Locus Robotics’ person-to-goods robots, or those comparing AMRs and AGVs from American, European, and Chinese manufacturers, detailed vendor-by-vendor analysis is now more important than ever. Much hinges on tariff strategies and local market requirements, making periodic revisiting of forecasts essential for informed decision-making.
