IDC has updated its 2024 global smartphone shipment forecast, predicting a 5.8% year-on-year growth to 1.23 billion units. This outlook stems from strong demand for affordable Android devices in emerging markets and a growing interest in generative AI (GenAI) smartphones in premium segments. This report marks a significant shift in market dynamics, emphasizing the role of technological advancements in shaping consumer preferences.
Market analysts previously projected a more modest growth in global smartphone shipments, driven by fluctuating economic conditions and market saturation in key regions. However, the new IDC forecast suggests a resurgence fueled by innovative features and competitive pricing strategies. This trend highlights the evolving landscape of consumer electronics, where cutting-edge technology influences purchasing decisions.
Android vs. iOS Growth
IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, stated that Android devices are expected to grow at a rate nine times faster than iOS, with rates of 7.1% and 0.8%, respectively. This significant difference is due to increased competition for Apple in China and a higher comparison base year for the iPhone maker.
Potential Upside for iOS
Despite this disparity, there is potential upside for iOS based on the reception of GenAI features in the upcoming iPhone 16 and Apple’s ability to establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC anticipates an improved trajectory for iOS in 2025, with a 4% year-on-year growth expected, driven by the anticipated momentum of Apple Intelligence.
The report also highlights the rapid adoption of GenAI smartphones, forecasting a 344% growth in this segment, capturing 18% of the total market by the end of 2024. Research director Anthony Scarsella observed that most flagship models would likely integrate some on-device GenAI features.
“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” said Anthony Scarsella.
The average selling price for GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices, further driving the premiumization trend in the industry.
The smartphone market’s recovery follows a challenging period, with IDC data showing 12% growth in the first quarter of 2024, followed by 9% in the second quarter. This positive trend has bolstered confidence in the industry’s performance for the latter half of the year. Similarly, Canalys research revealed strong growth in the second quarter of 2024, with shipments reaching 288.9 million units, driven by product innovation and improved business conditions.
Samsung maintained its lead with 53.5 million units shipped, while Apple held second place with 45.6 million units, supported by solid momentum in North America and APAC’s emerging markets. Xiaomi followed closely with 42.3 million units, achieving a market share of 15%. The Chinese domestic market is expected to see local brands using GenAI features to stand out in the premium segment, capturing the rising high-end spending and applying successful strategies worldwide.
Smartphone manufacturers continue to focus on integrating advanced features to maintain their competitive edge. Samsung aims to leverage its Galaxy ecosystem by incorporating exclusive GenAI features, while Apple seeks to accelerate replacement demand through its AI strategy, enhancing models with personalized Siri features and improved privacy. Despite a modest 1% shipment increase noted by Canalys, the global smartphone market is anticipated to grow in mid-single digits in 2024, driven by recovering inventory levels and an improved economic climate.
