Tesla is navigating a new phase as analysts scrutinize its progression in autonomous vehicle technology. After a shift in coverage at Morgan Stanley, discussions around Tesla’s ambitious plans for its Robotaxi fleet have intensified. While some investors remain cautious due to fluctuating forecasts, the company’s strategic approach and recent milestones continue to fuel debate. The concept of large-scale autonomous ride-hailing raises questions about safety, regulation, and consumer acceptance as Tesla pursues growth.
Many earlier analyst reports put more emphasis on Tesla’s core automotive business and near-term vehicle unit sales rather than the Robotaxi initiative. Earlier projections also varied about whether significant rollout could happen before the end of this decade, often raising skepticism about regulatory approval timelines and competitive landscape. In contrast, the current outlook suggests a rapid escalation in fleet size expectation by 2035, hinting at a growing belief in the feasibility of large-scale autonomous operations. Additionally, while past discussions centered on incremental software improvements, current forecasts are now shaping up around purpose-built vehicles and revenue generation potential.
What Growth Does Tesla Expect for Robotaxi?
Morgan Stanley, under new Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco, projects that the Tesla Robotaxi fleet could reach 1,000 vehicles in 2026, escalating to approximately one million units by 2035. This anticipated growth is based on Tesla’s current development pace in autonomous driving and the expansion of its ride-hailing platform. The prediction focuses on company-operated vehicles, separate from any private Tesla owners who might participate through software updates.
Which Milestones Could Determine Tesla’s Progress?
Key events identified as pivotal for Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions include opening ride-hailing services to the public without a safety monitor, ongoing improvements in safety metrics as the system scales, and initiating production of the new Cybercab model, designed solely for autonomous operation. Tesla aims to optimize manufacturing costs through its unboxed production process, which is expected to support market adoption. Percoco highlights the importance of these triggers in assessing whether Tesla’s direction remains viable.
How Are Public Trials and Expansion Unfolding?
Tesla’s Robotaxi program is currently active in limited regions, including Austin and the California Bay Area. Initial deployments have been implemented cautiously, focusing on safety and reliability while minimizing incidents that could hinder the program. According to company updates, “We are making careful deployment decisions to safeguard long-term service integrity.” Another statement reinforces this sentiment:
The journey towards a widespread Robotaxi fleet depends on advancing safety and building public trust.
Current operational results suggest gradual traction in the ride-hailing business, with the company leveraging incremental learnings to inform a broader rollout. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has emphasized the growing significance of Robotaxi services for future revenue streams, positioning it alongside products such as Cybercab to support diversification.
Our goal is to make autonomous ride-hailing accessible and scalable for a global audience.
These efforts accompany ongoing regulatory considerations, with public safety data under continuous review.
Tesla’s Robotaxi strategy continues to attract both analytical skepticism and cautious optimism. Investors and industry observers should track critical production and regulatory events, as these factors will determine the pace and extent of scaling autonomous fleets. For those interested in autonomous technology, staying updated on regional deployments, regulatory shifts, and fleet safety metrics offers practical insight. Understanding the fundamental differences between company-managed fleets and potential private vehicle integration may also shape expectations for how quickly, and broadly, services like Robotaxi could become a regular part of urban mobility. Monitoring announced production timelines, such as that for the Cybercab, and Tesla’s evolving safety standards provides further context for evaluating long-term opportunities in this sector.
